Predict Travel Trends with Pre-Testing
Where would you like to travel in 2025? It’s a tough question, right? There are just so many fantastic destinations to choose from! I’d love to believe that 2025 will be the year I finally explore Costa Rica, walk the Camino de Santiago, and ski in Hokkaido. But let’s face it—just because I say it doesn’t mean it’ll happen. As David Ogilvy famously said, “We rarely say what we think or do what we say.”
For travel brands and advertisers trying to ignite wanderlust, this gap between intention and action presents a real challenge. With countless destinations to promote, how can they ensure they’re spotlighting the right places for the right audiences? For instance, which European city is most likely to entice young couples for a summer getaway?
Understanding and influencing travel decisions in 2025 requires more than intuition—it demands smart, data-driven strategies. That’s where predictive testing comes into play, empowering brands to bridge the gap between consumer aspirations and actual bookings.
Test Your Innovation Destination
In the lead-up to New Year’s Eve 2024, System1 put the world’s most famous NYE destinations to the test among British and American tourists. Will travelers opt for celebrations closer to home, or will the allure of fireworks in the land down under inspire long-haul bookings?
Using our Test Your Innovation platform, we analyzed seven of the most sought-after New Year’s Eve destinations to predict which would resonate most with different audiences. These weren’t ads but simple concepts combining imagery and text to showcase what tourists might expect from each destination.
By predicting which destinations will capture the hearts of travelers before any communications are created, we empower brands to tailor their messaging and campaign strategies for maximum impact. Whether it’s Sydney’s iconic fireworks or Times Square’s countdown, knowing what audiences want allows brands to plan with precision and confidence.
To better understand which New Year’s Eve destinations will captivate travelers, we used a variety of tools and metrics to analyze consumer sentiment:
- Emotional Pull: Using our FaceTrace® tool, we measured the emotional resonance of each destination, capturing how effectively it connects with consumers on a personal and emotional level.
- Share Trading: We asked consumers whether they’d metaphorically “buy” or “sell” each destination, offering clear insights into their enthusiasm for each New Year’s event and how well it aligns with their preferences and behaviors.
- Decision Speed: By tracking how quickly consumers engaged with each concept, we uncovered the immediacy of their reactions. Faster responses indicated genuine enthusiasm, while slower ones pointed to hesitation or uncertainty.
- Reasons for Emotion: We gathered key consumer verbatims, revealing why they liked or disliked each destination. This data helps brands understand whether factors like distance are a challenge for specific age groups, or if elements like drone shows, musical performances, or cultural experiences can sway preferences.
Let’s kick off the New Year’s destination countdown, with consumer favorites revealed in 3, 2, 1…
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
American Tourists Favor the City of Love
- New Year’s Destination: Paris
- Star Rating: 4.5 Stars
Oui, c’est correct—American tourists are willing to travel far and wide for New Year’s Eve, with fireworks on the Champs-Élysées in Paris taking the top spot as a preferred destination. It’s important to note that the 2024 Paris Olympics have certainly set the stage, keeping the city top of mind for this audience. Many respondents highlighted the Olympics context, showcasing how powerful testing can be in capturing topical insights.
Among the positive responses, tourists described Paris as “vibrant,” “beautiful,” and “romantic”—key attributes that can help tailor communications to this audience. After all, where better to share a New Year’s kiss than in the City of Love? I can already picture an emotional ad campaign in the making…
Consumers have even started to do some of the comms planning for you, offering suggestions like creating package holidays for the location, ensuring the price is right, and “selling the idea of love and meet-cutes.” At this rate, you may as well kick back and let them do the heavy lifting!
The Champs-Élysées is recognized as an iconic spot, a status recently reinforced by the Olympics. This highlights the power of familiarity in driving engagement. In his book System1: Unlocking Profitable Growth, John Kearon explains that the most successful innovations balance familiarity with newness using the golden 80:20 rule (80% familiar, 20% new). The addition of fireworks to this beloved, well-known destination offers a surprising and exciting twist on a familiar experience.
New Year, New York for UK Tourists
- New Year’s Destination: New York
- Star Rating: 5.7 Stars
Among UK tourists, New Year’s plans are shaping up a bit differently, with Paris dropping to 4th place in this surprising turn of events. Leading the pack with an exceptional 5.7-star rating is the Times Square Ball Drop in New York City, recognized as an iconic destination from TV and widely seen as a “magical” winter experience.
Tourists highlight the practicality of the location, favoring direct flights from the UK to New York and the city’s seasonally perfect vibe. After years of disappointment with rainy New Year’s celebrations in the UK, it’s no wonder we yearn for a chilly winter wonderland to ring in the New Year.
For UK tourists, it’s not just familiarity that draws them in, but the seamless connection between New York and New Year’s Eve, perhaps reinforced by pop culture, such as the 2011 movie New Year’s Eve featuring Sarah Jessica Parker and Michelle Pfeiffer. It’s also considered an incredibly exciting destination—something brands could leverage in their messaging.
This underscores the value of testing in understanding how different audiences respond to various destinations and experiences. It not only helps brands like airlines, tour operators and others narrow down which destinations to promote, but also provides invaluable insights into the messaging that will resonate most strongly with each audience.
Sydney for Second Place
- UK Star Rating: 4.8 Stars
- US Star Rating: 3.5 Stars
Sydney is one destination that both UK and US audiences have in common, securing second place for both markets. Interestingly, distance doesn’t seem to be deterring travelers—in fact, some US consumers are even interested in exploring the rest of the Australian coast while they’re there.
However, Sydney does raise concerns around travel costs, something brands will need to address in their messaging. Despite this, the overall sentiment is positive, with highlights like warmer weather, unique wildlife, and a sense of safety contributing to the favorable responses. These insights provide valuable guidance for brands to emphasize Sydney’s appeal while tackling any potential concerns.
It looks like more mullets and moustaches might be infiltrating the UK and US this coming year, and I’m not complaining!
Create with Confidence
With a database of over 54,000 ideas to benchmark against, Test Your Innovation empowers brands to Create with Confidence and launch new products, logos, brand characters, and more. So, which destination will you be promoting next? Use Test Your Innovation to predict consumer behavior from an early stage and fine-tune your approach throughout the creative planning process. We can’t wait to help you tailor your communications and get more travelers booking!
