The 12 Gifts of Christmas

What is The 12 Gifts of Christmas report?

The 12 Gifts of Christmas is System1’s guide to Christmas advertising effectiveness. Drawing on five years of testing every Christmas and holiday campaign in the UK and US, it analyzes emotional and brand response data from 350 top-performing ads to show what makes festive advertising work in both the short and long term.

The report is organized in four parts: Christmas advertising in context, learnings from 350 top-performing Christmas ads, the 12 Gifts of Christmas themselves, and how to apply Christmas lessons to advertising all year round.

Methodology: how was the report built?

The report combines two datasets. The first is System1’s global database of 150,000+ tested ads, used to compare Christmas advertising with the rest of the year. The second is a deep dive into the 350 top-performing Christmas and holiday ads from the UK and US over five years (the top 35 ads in each market, each year), tested with 50,000+ consumers.

The “Top Picks” in the 12 Gifts come from 2024’s ads. The analysis of ads launched in November 2024 covers 1,118 TV ads, measured with Test Your Ad among 168,600+ nationally representative respondents. The 12 Gifts also draw on System1’s research with the IPA, Compound Creativity.

How does System1 measure Christmas ad effectiveness?

System1 scores every ad on three core metrics:

Star Rating predicts long-term brand growth. It is based on viewers’ second-by-second emotional response, weighing positive emotions (happiness and surprise) against negative ones and tracking how emotion changes through the ad. For example, sadness early on is fine if the ad resolves it by the end. Ads are rated from 1 to 5 Stars, and a 5-Star ad is projected to deliver around 3% share gains, assuming 10% Excess Share of Voice and average competitor ad quality.
Spike Rating predicts short-term sales effect over the 8–10 weeks after airing. It is derived from the strength of branding and the intensity of emotional response.
Fluency Rating measures the strength of branding: the percentage of viewers who recognize the brand by the end of the ad.

Why does Christmas advertising matter?

Christmas is the peak advertising moment. In both the UK and US, more new ads break in November than in any other month. From 2020 to 2023, 14% of new UK ads and 11% of new US ads broke in November.

The balance is shifting. Traditionally, Christmas has had a stronger presence in the UK than the US, but in 2024 a notable increase in US holiday campaigns meant that 15% of new US ads broke in November, ahead of the UK’s 13%. Spending is rising too: UK brands spent a record £9.5 billion on Christmas advertising in 2023, up 4.8% on the year before.

When do the best Christmas ads air, and how do they compare with Super Bowl ads?

November delivers the highest share of 5-Star ads in both markets. Across 2020–2023, 48% of UK and 28% of US 5-Star ads broke in November. In 2024 that rose to 48% in the UK and 53% in the US, as a surge of 5-Star US ads lit up the month.

2024 also marks the fifth consecutive year that holiday ads have outscored Super Bowl ads on long-term effectiveness. In the US, more holiday ads achieved Star Ratings above 4.5 and Spike Ratings above 1.5 than in previous years, and the creative in November and December outperformed the Big Game.

Do Christmas ads perform better than ads at other times of year?

Only marginally, on average. In 2024, average Star Ratings for UK ads ranged from 2.6 to 2.9 between January and October and reached 3.0 in November. For US ads, the average sat between 2.1 and 2.4 in every month, including November (2.4).

The headline is the gap between the best and the rest. While a fraction of ads excel at this time of year, a large majority fail to drive long-term effectiveness. In November 2024, 10% of UK ads and 3% of US ads were 5-Star, but in no other month did the figure exceed 3.2% in the UK or 1% in the US. Christmas competition drives quantity over quality.

Do Christmas ads drive sales?

Many do not. Despite a lot of November advertising focusing on short-term impact in a saturated seasonal market, half of the campaigns aired in November generated low short-term results.

The ads that prioritized long-term creative quality did better on both counts. Brands achieving 3 Stars and above saw a boost in short-term impact and long-term growth potential, and the top players with exceptional long-term potential saw the greatest short-term impact too. In other words, if you focus on long-term emotional storytelling, short-term sales impact will generally take care of itself.

How do Christmas ads in the UK compare with the US?

UK Christmas advertising has been the more consistent performer. In System1’s testing, average Star Ratings for UK Christmas ads climbed from 3.3 in 2020 to 4.3 in both 2023 and 2024, while US holiday ads were more mixed (3.3 in 2020, 4.1 in 2023 and 3.6 in 2024). Both sit well above the 2024 TV average Star Rating of 2.5.

Among the top 35 ads in each market, 63% of UK ads achieved a strong Star Rating and an exceptional Spike Rating, compared with 48% in the US (15 percentage points more in the UK). System1 attributes this to the prominence of consistent strategies in UK Christmas advertising. The UK also dominates the all-time leaderboard, with most of the highest-scoring ads coming from 2023 and 2024.

How long do Christmas ads stay on air?

Not long. Brands often produce their most effective creative work at Christmas, yet these campaigns get the shortest airtime. UK ads that broke in November and December ran for around 57 and 56 days on average, compared with roughly 87 to 120 days for ads breaking in any other month.

To maximize impact, System1 recommends re-running successful campaigns from last year, investing in a character-driven approach, and launching early to extend festive reach. Consistency ensures the magic lasts long after December.

Is emotion coming at the cost of branding in Christmas ads?

Increasingly, yes. After the pandemic, Christmas ad effectiveness rebounded as brands invested in stronger creative: the average Star Rating of the top 35 ads rose from 4.6 in 2020 to 5.1 in 2024 in the UK, and from 4.7 to 5.0 in the US.

Branding has not kept pace. UK Fluency (brand recognition) fell from 93% in 2021 to 89% in 2024, and US Fluency dropped to 81% in 2023 before recovering to 86% in 2024. As competition intensifies each year, brands need to lean into their distinctive assets and weave consistent, familiar devices into their holiday campaigns.

Which brands deliver Christmas effectiveness year after year?

Only 11 brands have made it into the top 35 in every one of the past five years across the UK and US. Top performers like Aldi, Cadbury, Coca-Cola and Marks & Spencer are reaping the rewards of consistent strategies and sustained investment in fluent devices.

More brands are now reaching exceptional long-term potential, so the gap between leaders and the rest is widening. The lesson: find a 5-Star creative idea with staying power and make sure it compounds over time.

What are the 12 Gifts of Christmas?

The 12 Gifts are System1’s twelve lessons from the top performers of Christmas and holiday advertising, grouped into two parts.

Part 1: Find Your Creative Spark

Stories that Resonate across Time
Defeat Dullness
Beloved Icons that Bring Joy
Testing the Recipe for Success
A Greater Reason to Celebrate
Music that Moves the Heart
A Dash of Holiday Enchantment

Part 2: Let Creativity Compound

Make Sure They Know It’s You
Stars of the Festive Show
Ideas that Keep on Giving
Cross-Channel Cohesion
Don’t Be Afraid to Regift

What is Compound Creativity?

Compound Creativity is the idea that great Christmas advertising isn’t just about crafting magical, memorable moments, but about building on those moments year after year. It is the subject of System1’s research with the IPA, The Magic of Compound Creativity.

It works in two steps. First, find your creative spark: an idea that connects emotionally and leaves a lasting impression. Then let that creativity compound through consistent storytelling, recurring characters and cohesive cross-channel strategies, so that campaigns deliver impact over time rather than for a single season.

What makes a great Christmas ad story?

Emotional, human-centered narratives are the foundation of effective Christmas ads. They transcend cultural barriers and tap into universal feelings of joy, love and togetherness. Great storytelling doesn’t have to be complex: it needs a clear beginning, middle and end that drives toward a positive peak. Some of the most impactful ads build tension or negative emotion and then resolve it with an uplifting moment, so audiences feel better by the close.

Top Picks from 2024 include Amazon (5.9 Stars), whose musical janitor is surprised by colleagues with the chance to perform; Hobby Lobby (5.1), with simple stories of neighbors swapping surprise holiday crafts; and John Lewis (4.6), whose two-minute film follows a woman’s quest for the perfect present for her younger sister.

Does a Christmas ad need to represent everyone to resonate with everyone?

No. System1’s guidance is that brands are magnets, not mirrors: ads don’t need to include everyone to resonate with everyone. John Lewis’s 2024 campaign, centered on female characters, sparked divisive commentary about the lack of male representation. Yet the data shows it was the highest-scoring John Lewis Christmas ad in System1’s testing since 2019, with strong emotional impact and exceptional brand recognition, performing equally well across all consumers.

The golden rule is resonance, not relevance. Ads succeed when they tell authentic, human-centered stories, not when they try to be everything to everyone.

How do Christmas ads defeat dullness?

Neutrality is the most common response to advertising, and it leaves audiences feeling nothing and doing nothing. Research from Jon Evans, Adam Morgan and Peter Field, The Extraordinary Cost of Dull, shows dull ads need significantly higher budgets to achieve the same market share growth as emotionally impactful campaigns.

Christmas ads that defeat dullness take audiences on an emotional journey, evoking joy, surprise or nostalgia, and embrace bold storytelling, characters, a sense of place and human connection. Top Picks include Disney’s story of a boy and an octopus (5.9 Stars), Kroger’s animated world blending humor and emotion (5.6) and Dick’s Sporting Goods’ playful Christmas movie references (4.6). All scored highly on Star Rating with minimal Neutrality.

Should brands borrow celebrities, characters or cultural icons in Christmas ads?

It can be a powerful shortcut. The key to effective advertising is consistently building fluent emotional triggers, and borrowing Intellectual Property that already triggers emotion lets a brand attach those feelings to itself. Familiar celebrities, characters and cultural icons tap into shared memories and create an instant connection.

The catch is that the hired device must play a role that aligns with its well-known persona, reinforcing rather than competing with the brand’s story. Twinkly brought back Chevy Chase as Clark Griswold to recreate his famous Christmas lights scene; Sainsbury’s borrowed the BFG from Roald Dahl; and Etsy told a story around Waldo and the value of hand-crafted gifts.

Does pre-testing improve Christmas ad effectiveness?

Yes. In System1’s analysis, Christmas ads that were pre-tested with System1 outperformed those that were not on every measure:

Star Rating (long-term): 5.1 vs 4.1 without pre-testing
Spike Rating (short-term): 1.53 vs 1.29
Fluency (brand recognition): 93% vs 85%

Pre-testing matters most at Christmas, when stakes are high and competition is fierce. Sky pre-tested a range of creative to pinpoint what would land best, Aldi consistently pre-tests its Kevin the Carrot campaigns to make sure the jokes land, and Moonpig scored very well with a concept tested from the storyboard stage.

Can Christmas ads about giving back work without making audiences feel guilty?

Yes, when the message is framed with warmth rather than guilt. Christmas is a time of togetherness, and brands that highlight the spirit of giving back can create a deep emotional connection.

Lidl’s Toy Bank ad uses children to model acts of kindness, a tactic grounded in behavioral science because children are seen as neutral messengers who deliver a message without judgment. Save the Children used Shaun the Sheep to leave audiences feeling positive about a difficult topic, and Chelsea FC’s support for homeless communities in London scored impressively with a nationally representative sample for a football club.

What role does music play in effective Christmas ads?

Christmas is the ultimate proof that familiarity breeds contentment. Melodic music that audiences can easily sing or hum attracts the broad-beam attention of the right brain, making it an effective tool for building memory structures among a wider audience.

The best Christmas ads make the soundtrack build the story arc and bring plenty of emotion. It isn’t only classic carols that put audiences in a festive mood: well-known hits from today and the past also elicit happiness and surprise. Examples include Amazon’s janitor performing “What the World Needs Now Is Love”, GAP’s choir singing an a cappella “Together Again”, and LEGO’s use of “Are You Ready for This”.

Why do charm, humor and animated characters work so well at Christmas?

Right-brain creative features, such as charm, humor and characters brimming with agency and vitality, prioritize emotional connection, narrative depth and visual engagement. At Christmas they take on extra sparkle, embracing the enchantment and wonder of the season.

Animated characters are especially effective vehicles because they can move, emote and act with an agency that sparks joy and curiosity, and they can deliver humor, charm and visual spectacle. Olipop’s playful yetis, ASDA’s mischievous gnomes and Kroger’s animated festive world each show the approach at work.

Why does brand recognition matter so much in Christmas advertising?

Fluency, the measure of how easily an ad’s creative elements are recognized and associated with the brand, is one of the most important metrics in System1’s testing. At Christmas, when ads are filled with similar festive visuals and themes, fluent creative assets are what make your brand stand out and connect emotionally.

Coca-Cola’s “Holidays are Coming” (first aired in 1995) is the benchmark, scoring 5.9 Stars in 2024. Aldi’s latest Kevin the Carrot ad (5.9 Stars) scored 99% Fluency, showing results are earned through years of consistent, fluent campaigns, and Target scored 100% Fluency using its Bullseye character and logo.

Does using AI hurt the effectiveness of a Christmas ad?

Not if the ad doesn’t make AI the story. Coca-Cola reworked “Holidays are Coming” with generative AI, which sparked debate among marketers, but audiences responded with the same joy as ever. The ad elicited the highest % Total Happiness of all UK Christmas ads in 2024 and was the top-scoring holiday ad in the US. Humans were still involved in every step of the creative process.

System1’s read is that the real winner was Coca-Cola’s timeless distinctive assets, not the technology. To the average viewer, if an ad doesn’t call attention to AI or place it at the center of the story, they really don’t mind. The advice: keep the narrative focused on human connection and use AI as the tool, not the message. AI may also let smaller brands compete at Christmas, though that remains to be seen.

What is a fluent device, and how long does it take to pay off?

A fluent device is a brand character, or a creative concept expressed as a slogan, used as the primary vehicle for drama in multiple ads, without which the ad would make little sense. Fluent devices rely on viewers’ prior knowledge to complete the narrative themselves, which feels good, is memorable and builds positive memory structures.

The pay-off takes patience. Average Star Rating by fluent device tenure:

No fluent device: 2.6
Year 1: 2.4, Year 2: 2.6, Year 3: 2.7
Year 4: 3.5, Year 5: 3.5

Fluent devices grow more powerful with repetition, and by year 4 creative quality skyrockets. M&S’s Christmas Fairy, played by Dawn French, shows a fluent device hitting its prime: its Star Rating rose from 4.6 in 2021 to 5.2 in 2022 and 5.9 in both 2023 and 2024. Other examples include the M&M’s spokescandies and KitKat’s “Have a Break”.

What makes a Christmas creative idea “keep on giving”?

A creative idea with legs doesn’t just work for one campaign. It evolves and delivers impact across multiple seasons, staying flexible enough to adapt to new contexts while remaining true to its core narrative.

In 2024, Barbour’s Shaun the Sheep series evolved its festive storytelling while keeping its charm and humor; Morrisons brought back its singing oven gloves; and KitKat’s “Have a Break” continued to resonate by tapping into relatable moments. McDonald’s is embedding “Fancy a McDonald’s?” year-round, building a scenario-based fluent device in the way KitKat’s “Have a Break” and Snickers’ “You’re not you when you’re hungry” have. Very’s festive flamingos and Aldi’s Kevin the Carrot, who appeared during the Paris Olympics, show characters working beyond December too.

Does cross-channel consistency make Christmas campaigns more effective?

Yes. The most effective campaigns deliver cohesive storytelling across TV, digital and social. System1’s research with JCDecaux found that out-of-home effectiveness more than doubles when paired with TV campaigns.

Looking at Cadbury’s Secret Santa, out-of-home ads consistent with the TV campaign were twice as distinctive (measured by Fast Fluency at two seconds) and delivered greater effects on both timescales: a Star Rating of 3.1 and Spike Rating of 1.10, versus 2.8 and 0.90 for out-of-home without a TV match. Waitrose also crafted a bold, mysterious narrative across multiple platforms, and Aldi’s spoof of it stayed true to the brand thanks to Kevin the Carrot.

Is it effective to re-air a Christmas ad?

Yes. Reusing or re-airing a successful ad is the marketing equivalent of regifting: it saves costs while boosting impact, because reinforcing familiar creative builds recognition and emotional resonance through fluency. The key is the strength of the original: ads that resonate deeply, evoke positive emotion and stay true to the brand identity.

All five brands that reused the same ad in the report improved their Star Rating between 2023 and 2024: Very (4.8 to 5.4), TK Maxx (5.0 to 5.8), Cadbury (5.3 to 5.9), Capital One (5.3 to 5.8) and Reese’s (4.9 to 5.2). It isn’t about laziness; it’s about letting great ideas work harder over time.

Can Christmas advertising lessons be applied all year round?

Yes. System1 distills three golden lessons from Christmas advertising:

Let Compound Creativity guide you all year. Lean into fluent devices and a consistent creative idea with legs, and ask not what you can change, but what you can keep the same to improve creative quality and salience.
Defeat neutrality to drive emotional impact. Neutral ads don’t work; intense, positive emotions do. Use music, humor, storytelling, human “betweenness” and emotional dynamism. The Cost of Dull report shows that ads with emotional depth are more profitable and impactful.
Test early and often. Testing helps refine campaigns for both immediate sales impact and long-term brand growth.

Download Our 12 Gifts of Christmas Report

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Oh Christmas Tree, Oh Christmas Tree: Unwrapping Ad Insights from A to Z

A

Aldi (UK) & McCann

Amazon (Global)

Argos (UK)

ASDA & Havas London (UK)

B

Barbour & Aardman (UK)

BBC (UK)

C

Cadbury & VCCP (UK)

Cadbury Digital & VCCP (UK)

Capital One & GSD&M (US)

Chelsea FC & KODE Media (UK)

Chewy.com (US)

Chex (US)

Coca-Cola (Global)

D

Dick’s Sporting Goods & Hungry Man

Disney & Adam&EveDDB (Global)

E

Energizer (US)

Etsy & Orchard Creative (Global)

FatFace & Livity (UK)

G

Greggs (UK)

GAP (Global)

H

Harvey Nichols & The Berry (UK)

H.E.B (US)

H.E.B (US)

Hershey's

Hobby Lobby (US)

Hobby Lobby (US)

J

John Lewis & Saatchi&Saatchi (UK)

K

KitKat (US)

Kinder (US)

Kroger & Adam&EveDDB (US)

L

Lego (Global)

Lidl & Smuggler (UK)

Lindt (US)

M

M&M’s (US)

M&S Food (UK)

M&S Home (UK)

McDonald’s & Leo Burnett (UK)

Meijer (US)

Morrisons & Leo Burnett (UK)

O

Olipop & CALLEN (US)

P

Pillsbury (US)

Publix (US)

R

Reese’s (US)

Reese’s (US)

S

Sainsburys & New Commercial Arts and The Roahl Dahl Company (UK)

SHARKNINJA (UK)

Suchard & Ogilvy ES (Spain)

T

Target & Mythology (US)

Tesco & BBH London (UK)

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