Bennifer’s Split Proves Celebrities Aren’t a Long-Term Super Bowl Strategy
As Super Bowl LIX approaches, one burning question is on everyone’s minds: What will Dunkin’ do now?
Since the 1960s, Super Bowl commercials have become just as much of a spectacle as the game itself—if not more! Data from System1’s Test Your Ad database shows that Super Bowl ads are 10% more likely to evoke an emotional reaction than the average ad, making viewers more inclined to take action, as Adam Morgan, Peter Field and Jon Evans explore in The Extraordinary Cost of Dull. But with a staggering $7 million price tag for just 30 seconds of airtime, brands are under serious pressure to deliver something unforgettable.
It’s no surprise, then, that advertisers often turn to Hollywood’s biggest stars to help entertain us and win over hearts (and wallets). Since 2020, celebrity appearances in Super Bowl ads have jumped by 15%, with nearly half of all commercials now featuring famous faces.
But while celebs might bring the sparkle, not every star-studded ad delivers the impact brands hope for. On average, ads featuring celebrities achieve a 2.8 Star Rating on System1’s scale of long-term market share potential—just slightly better than the 2.5 Star Rating for ads without celebrities. A minor difference, huh? That said, celebrity ads do fare better in the short term, earning stronger Spike Ratings—System1’s measure of short-term sales potential—compared to their non-celebrity counterparts. These figures suggest one thing: celebrities are a great short-term strategy. But what about the long haul?
Some brands do successfully invest in long-term celebrity partnerships. Think George Clooney and Nespresso—you can practically hear his smooth voice every time you sip their coffee. While this strategy is less common during the Super Bowl, it’s not entirely absent. Pete Davidson has been a recurring face for Hellmann’s since 2022, Post Malone was a regular in Bud Light commercials, and Scrubs stars Zach Braff and Donald Faison have become the enduring duo for T-Mobile ads.
Dunkin’ seemed poised to join the long-term club with J.Lo and Ben Affleck as their power couple—until their untimely split. And therein lies the risk of celebrity investments: they’re unpredictable. A breakup, a scandal, or any other unforeseen circumstance can send brands back to square one. Is that a risk worth banking on?
Celebrities vs. Brand Characters: The Age-Old Debate
This is hardly new news. In his books Lemon and Look out, Orlando Wood analyzed commercial data from the IPA, revealing that celebrities are better suited for driving short-term sales spikes rather than long-term market share growth. While long-running celebrity partnerships benefit from the compounding impact of consistency—take, for example, caffeine-fueled George Clooney—this strategy isn’t built to last forever. Celebrities, by nature, won’t survive eternity—unless, of course, they discover the secret to everlasting youth (which, at times, it almost seems like they have).
However, Super Bowl ads featuring recurring spokespeople do, on average, see a +1 Star Rating increase in long-term effectiveness over a 3-year period, while the most consistent of them achieve an average of 3.6 Stars. While celebrities may not be a foolproof, eternal strategy, there is certainly a strong case for their consistent use in the short term. But, as Bennifer’s split proves, even this can be unreliable. Despite seeing a sharp increase in short-term returns year-on-year, it’s unlikely we’ll see them reunited in 2025, and with that, Dunkin’ is back to the drawing board.
Recent developments in Hollywood also serve as a stark reminder of the risks tied to investing in non-ownable assets. When a brand is linked to a celebrity–facing scandal, the impact on the brand can be catastrophic. At this level, the risks of relying on celebrity partnerships quickly outweigh the rewards.
So, what’s the surefire solution to mitigate such risks while still entertaining for commercial gain?
Brand characters
Compared to celebrity-driven ads, brand characters make up just 6% of the Super Bowl ad space. Despite their rarity, these characters achieve an average of 3.9 Stars in long-term effectiveness, with exceptional short-term sales potential, outperforming celebrities as commercial drivers. The scarcity of brand characters on Super Bowl screens also makes them more likely to leave a lasting impression. A brand character is far more distinctive—and therefore memorable—than another ad featuring Tom Brady, especially when used repeatedly over the years, like M&M’s colorful cast or the iconic Budweiser Clydesdales. These characters not only boost appeal through familiarity but also cue the brand, ensuring that emotional resonance translates into real commercial gain.
To underscore just how crowded the Super Bowl celebrity scene has become, we analyzed the most featured celebrities in ads over the past 5 years and crowned Serena Williams as the most featured star. She’s appeared in 7 commercials for 7 different brands in that time—a clear testament to her appeal among advertisers. However, her presence doesn’t necessarily translate to a strong commercial uplift, as ads featuring Serena achieve a modest 2.8 Star Rating on average.
Here’s a challenge: can you name all 7 brands Serena has represented? Probably not. Now compare that to seeing a peanut in a top hat—chances are you’d instantly associate it with Planters. That’s the power of distinctiveness and fluency.
This pattern holds true across the entire celebrity leaderboard, with most stars delivering similar results. But one exception stands out: Paul Rudd, whose ads average a higher 3.3 Star Rating. Is he a consumer favorite? Or is his success the result of appearing in better-crafted campaigns?
Superstars of Super Bowl Spots
At this point, we’re starting to sound like a broken record, repeating the same message year after year in our Super Bowl summary webinar. No matter how loudly we shout, “Bring back brand characters!” or “Characters Drive Commercial Impact,” the data often gets drowned out by the glitter of stardom. While our hopes are rising—with a +6% increase in brand character presence since 2020—it’s clear that celebrities aren’t going anywhere.
Get in Touch
If you’re looking to score an advertising touchdown for the 2025 game, pre-testing is a must. Want to ensure your celebrity is the perfect fit or find ways to better integrate them into the narrative? Need to tweak dialogue or ensure your brand—not theirs—is the star of the show? Perhaps you’re launching a new brand character and want to benchmark its effectiveness ahead of its big debut? No problem—System1 can help you make it happen.
Contact our team today to make sure your Super Bowl campaign delivers unforgettable impact.
And don’t miss our report, “How to Win the Super Bowl,” filled with insights on developing winning creative. Plus, in part 2 of our Super Bowl blog series next week, we’ll explore the best ways to maximize the impact of celebrity spokespeople.
