System1 Test Your Innovation Accurately Predicts US Christmas Sales Performance for LEGO Advent Calendars
Ahead of the holiday season, System1 put six LEGO Advent calendars to the test through our Test Your Innovation platform. We wanted to determine which creative calendars had the strongest foundations for building sales success and the greatest potential to snap together in-market results.

Based on participant feedback, System1 predicted the success of the advent calendars in the following order:

The innovation results revealed that US consumers were most likely to purchase the Spider-Man and Star Wars calendars. These were then followed by Disney, Harry Potter, City, and finally, Friends. The calendars were evaluated using System1’s Test Your Innovation platform, which predicts the commercial success of new products, taglines, brand characters, logos, and more by measuring consumers’ emotional responses.
In addition to assessing the type and intensity of emotions consumers feel about ideas, Test Your Innovation offers insights into the reasons behind those emotions, key advantages, improvement suggestions, a price sensitivity meter, and implicit brand attributes. For example, consumers expressed Happiness for the Spider-Man advent calendar, highlighting that the integration of Spider-Man with Christmas is a combination young kids will love. This brick-by-brick pairing of cultural moments is a strategy the LEGO team can acknowledge and build on in the future to maximize commercial success.
Matching the Sales Data
Then using JungleScout (Amazon seller software,) System1 was able to determine the sales success of the products which confirmed a +0.8 correlation between our Star forecasts and subsequent revenue on Amazon. When we ran the same testing and analysis in the UK, we also saw a strong, positive correlation between Star and subsequent revenue.

As predicted by Test Your Innovation, the Spider-Man and Star Wars advent calendars delivered the highest sales returns, building their way to becoming the most successful calendars in-market for LEGO. The success of these products was largely attributed to the integration of beloved and recognizable characters, as highlighted in the full innovation report. The report also identified areas for improvement in future innovations, with price point emerging as the primary concern among consumers.
As novelty advent calendars continue to grow in popularity within the Christmas market, leveraging consumer insights is crucial to ensure these designs can compete effectively with traditional chocolate options. Innovation insights empower brands to tailor their messaging to maximize appeal or identify opportunities for improvement in imagery, packaging design, and product content—helping their calendars connect with consumers and deliver holiday success.
Create with Confidence
With a database of over 54,000 ideas and the ability to test with specific target audiences, Test Your Innovation delivers brick-by-brick insights into how your new products, slogans, packaging designs, and creative ideas will perform in-market. Powered by real-life sales data, it enables brands to confidently LEGO of guesswork and make data-driven decisions based on real consumer feedback.
Key moments like Christmas and the Super Bowl present massive commercial opportunities for brands, where product innovation, celebrity partnerships, and seasonally relevant packaging take center stage. Don’t miss the chance to maximize your brand’s potential and drive success in these critical windows!