Fall Flavor Fatigue – Is Pumpkin Losing Its Crown?

Pumpkin is out, the classics are back! This fall, the spotlight is shifting from the ubiquitous pumpkin spice to the timeless appeal of classic flavors, with apple leading the charge as the preferred fall flavor innovation. 

Every autumn, the internet buzzes with debate over whether you’re a pumpkin or apple enthusiast, especially with the release of new fall beverages from Starbucks, the home of pumpkin spice. Even Buzzfeed has jumped on the trend with a quiz to determine your fall flavor personality. The digital debate often boils down to personal preferences—whether you prefer a cozy day at a coffee shop, or a fall hike filled with autumnal foliage.  

Fun quizzes and TikTok videos aside, we wanted to know what consumers prefer when it comes to their flavor profile. To get to the bottom of this, we asked consumers which fall flavors they think will be the most successful and why using our Test Your Innovation platform that predicts the in-market potential of new ideas. 

Be-leaf it or not, the winner among the six fall innovations had neither pumpkin nor apple flavors in its ingredients list (although one of the variations has a jack-o-lantern design).

Pillsbury Halloween Cookies scored a 4.0-Star Rating (on our 1.0 to 5.9-Star scale) and elicited Happiness in most consumers for several reasons:

• Nostalgia: Many people have fond memories of enjoying these cookies during their childhood. The tradition of baking and eating these cookies around Halloween brings back warm memories and a sense of continuity.
• Fun Designs: In System1: Unlocking Profitable Growth, founder John Kearon emphasizes the importance of familiarity in product innovation—successful launches often strike a balance of 80% familiar, 20% new. The cookies follow the 80/20 rule by featuring the classic sugar cookie with a small twist of festive shapes like pumpkins and ghosts, which add a playful and seasonal touch to any Halloween celebration.
• Convenience: Pillsbury cookies are pre-cut and ready to bake, making them a quick and easy option for busy families. This convenience is particularly appreciated during the hectic holiday season.
• Versatility: People enjoy getting creative with these cookies. Social media platforms like TikTok are full of ideas for using Pillsbury cookies in various recipes, from cookie-crust cheesecakes to cookie sandwiches.
• Seasonality: The limited-time availability of these cookies adds to their appeal. Knowing that they are only available during certain times of the year makes them a special treat that often sells out in October.

Pumpkin gets squashed

While many might have expected pumpkin products to dominate consumers’ fall cravings, it seems that pumpkin’s reign has been waning.

According to a 2023 innovation test we ran on pumpkin spice, pumpkin-flavored menu items were already on their way out, with apple emerging as the preferred flavor. Classic flavors and the autumnal apple are rising to the top, capturing the spotlight on seasonal menus and in shoppers’ carts.

For those consumers who felt negative emotions (contempt, disgust, and anger) towards pumpkin  innovations, they offered feedback such as : “I don’t want pumpkin in my iconic candy,” “I am personally not a fan of anything pumpkin,” “pumpkin is not an easy flavor to replicate,” and “my first thought was yuck!”

Pumpkin, much like blue cheese, is a polarizing flavor that many people tend to dislike. While our test results suggest that pumpkin might not be the best choice for all products, it doesn’t mean the flavor should be entirely abandoned. Brands should adhere to the 80/20 rule of innovation—80% familiar, 20% new—to strike the right balance. This means not defaulting to pumpkin for every seasonal offering.

When investing in seasonal foods and beverages, it’s crucial to ensure that the flavors complement each other well. For example, the combination of apple and caramel in Werther’s Original Candies, which took second place, is a perfect match. The chosen flavor, whether it’s pumpkin, apple, or maple, should be well-suited to the product and its intended use.

While some foods, such as desserts, are ideally suited for the earthy sweetness of pumpkin, it doesn’t mean every product needs to be pumpkinified!

Create New Innovations with Confidence

One of the keys to product development is to test to understand the predicted in-market success of your new innovation. System1’s Test Your Innovation platform measures how people feel about ideas because the more people feel, the more they buy.

With a database of over 54,000 innovations to benchmark against, Test Your Innovation empowers brands to Create with Confidence. So, which idea will be your next star? Use Test Your Innovation to predict your winner from an early stage and fine-tune it throughout the innovation process. We can’t wait to help you bring it to market!