Bursting the Bubble: Healthy Sodas Shake Up the Market
Carbonated drinks aren’t just about quenching thirst—they’re practically bubbling up from the very roots of American culture! The U.S. is the birthplace of iconic sodas like Dr Pepper, which first debuted in Texas in 1885, and its rouge rival Coca-Cola, which appeared in Atlanta just a year later. Add Pepsi, Mountain Dew, and 7 Up to the mix, and you’ve got a classic soda lineup that’s as American as apple pie. These brands haven’t just taken over our pantries—they’ve also made their mark on pop culture, from E.T. and The Breakfast Club to Back to the Future, Stranger Things, and Mad Men.
This soda scene is far from going flat; in fact, some new contenders are ready to shake things up and give the old favorites a run for their bubbles!
The carbonated drinks category represents 37% of US sales within the soft drinks category – I mean, who wouldn’t want a slice of this pie? But as consumers become more health-conscious, cracks are appearing in the market, allowing healthier alternatives to seep through. Edgy brands like Liquid Death are killing it in the carbonated water space, while microbiome-friendly sodas like Poppi and Olipop are bursting a few bubbles in the soda market.
While the industry remains more stable than most, traditional soda brands can’t afford to ignore the rising demand for healthier options. More consumers are ditching sugary drinks for gut-friendly alternatives, with prebiotic soda sales expected to soar past $100 million in 2024—a three-fold increase from the previous year.
Does Health Equal Wealth for Prebiotic Brands?
The prebiotic, microbiome soda industry faces a tough challenge. While many Americans claim they want healthier options, at System1, we know actions speak louder than words. To determine which disruptors can truly cut through the competition and achieve commercial success, we’ve put them to the test.
Using our Test Your Innovation platform and the predictive power of emotion, we’ve uncovered whether these challenger brands are tapping into the right emotional triggers to drive consumer action.
Another hurdle for these brands is overcoming unfamiliarity. While sugar may not be the healthiest ingredient, it’s one consumers know and trust. Even traditional brands faced challenges introducing “zero calorie” and “diet” versions, so how are newer brands supposed to sell ingredients like apple cider vinegar and chicory root?
In System1: Unlocking Profitable Growth, founder John Kearon emphasizes the importance of familiarity in product innovation—successful launches often strike a balance of 80% familiar, 20% new. Traditional soda brands have the advantage of a rich history and cultural heritage, giving them a deep well of familiarity across look, taste, and brand identity. Challenger brands, as lesser-known entities, are not only launching new formulas but also facing the challenge of building recognition.
So, what can we learn from the top-scoring soda innovators?
To Take on a Classic, One Must Behave Like a Classic
The results of our TYI test show that prebiotic alternatives are truly shaking up the category, with Poppi and Olipop variants outshining new flavor releases from traditional brands. Each of these innovations takes a unique approach, both proving effective for different reasons. Let’s uncap the findings:
Olipop Cherry Cola
Star-Rating: 4.5
Taking on the cola classic, Olipop’s prebiotic ‘Cherry Cola’ is certainly making a splash! By adhering to the golden 80:20 ratio of familiar and new, this healthy alternative taps into the familiar flavors and visual appeal of the original. With Coca-Cola Cherry as its better-known rival—recognized for its cherry visuals and bold red coloring—Olipop has cleverly maintained the look and feel of the classic soda. Their new variant, packed with high fiber, just 5g of sugar, and their prebiotic Olismart blend, blends familiar codes with innovative ones. The result? Strong market potential and an eager audience ready to embrace the “popular flavor”!
19% of consumers highlighted the prebiotic, healthy ingredients as a key advantage, while 29% simply appreciated the taste. The secret to this innovation’s success lies not in what consumers gain, but in what they don’t lose. Behavioral science shows that people dislike trade-offs, a principle known as ‘loss aversion’. By focusing on the elements that make this product resemble the original—its flavor and visual appeal—consumers feel they’re not sacrificing what they already know and love for a healthier choice.
Poppi Wild Berry
Star-Rating: 3.3
Poppi’s Wild Berry also takes on classic flavors, however, unlike Olipop’s Cherry Cola, which closely mirrors the original Cherry Coke in appearance, Poppi’s choice of a bold blue packaging aligns more with the general ‘wild berry’ aesthetic rather than any specific brand.
With wild berry being less common in the soda category compared to classic cola, there’s more emphasis on highlighting the product’s added benefits. Here, 28% of consumers noted the low-calorie and probiotic features as key advantages, while only 14% mentioned the flavor. While Olipop’s Cherry Cola excelled in building trust, Poppi’s Wild Berry stands out for its alignment with brand identity. This shows that when introducing less familiar flavors, there’s more opportunity for brand-specific elements to make a strong impact.
Both brands successfully blend classic brand codes with something new, which is why they’re making waves in the industry. Poppi offers a cola variety, using a strategy similar to Olipop’s, while Olipop also features unique flavors to highlight their distinctive brand attributes. These approaches ensure that both taste and health are seamlessly integrated into their brand identities. The key to their success lies not just in individual products, but in their ability to balance freshness and familiarity across their range—a model where 80% of their flavors focus on great taste and classic profiles, and 20% emphasizes unique blends and brand distinctiveness.
One thing’s for certain: the category needs to make room for these vibrant contenders—they’re here to stay!
Create New Innovations with Confidence
With a database of over 54,000 innovations to benchmark against, Test Your Innovation empowers brands to Create with Confidence. So, which idea will be your next star? Use Test Your Innovation to predict your winner from an early stage and finetune it throughout the innovation process. We can’t wait to help you bring it to market!